108,000 people. 4. It's a largely rural area of 40,000 residents that's home to a nuclear power plant, a sprawling US National Guard training facility and islands that the British Royal Navy battled for and lost during the War of 1812. How Does The Electoral College Work And Is It Fair? "There is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised," they concluded. Found an error on our site? Trump remained very strong with white voters without a college degree in 2020, helping him win Iowa and Ohio by comfortable margins and remain competitive in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Copyright 2023 HotAir.com/Salem Media. Also key is Larimer (Fort Collins). Combinedwith general population growth, and this election had 27 million more participants. Answer (1 of 33): Because "bellwether counties" are a load of horse manure. These counties turned out to vote strongly for the Democrat party in 2008, so they are the most likely to swing back to the Democrat party in 2020. Lets quickly recap what we have established so far: In this post we will further relax the constraint by analyzing counties that voted Democrat in 2008 and Republican in 2016 only; that is, the switch counties in the most recent elections. It's happened before. From his tweet: From 1984 through 2016, spanning presidential elections, seventeen US counties in several states ad voted for the winning presidential candidate in an astounding 148 of 153 times including 100% five times for five different presidents: Advertisement - story continues below 1984 Reagan 1996 Clinton 2000 Bush 2012 Obama 2016 Trump The statistic on counties comes from a report bytheBrookings Institution on Nov. 10. More: Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election. Trump also needs to drive up margins in Republican-leaning Western counties like Kent (Grand Rapids) and Ottawa (on the shores of Lake Michigan). Clinton has to hit that margin in this county where more than half a million people voted. 10. | AP Photo, By Darren Samuelsohn, Katie Glueck, Kyle Cheney and Daniel Strauss. Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? If youve done your research and found the 2020 results for each of these counties, you should find the results extremely puzzling. The Art Of The Vote: Who Designs The Ballots We Cast. Mr Biden "never thought he was going to bring Ohio; he didn't put the effort in," says Democrat John Brikmanis from Oak Harbor in Ottawa County, and who ran unsuccessfully for the position of county clerk last month. According to an analysis of bellwether states and counties by Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, "Vigo County, Indiana is the most prominent bellwether of presidential. Or even better, if you have children, get them to do it for you. Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less . Four years later, Caswell is still looking for a second act for its . (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). But it's also not unprecedented. In 2004 Kerry lost it by about 5,000 votes. If there's a place to watch in the state that could tip it toward Clinton is college towns like Ogden in Weber County, home to Weber State. It is easy to gloss over this. If Trump wants to win the state, he has to start with a win here and make up the rest of the margin elsewhere. The statistics also are not indicative of electoral fraud. In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points . Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 105,724Republicans: 70,060Unaffiliated: 15,141Other: 6,079. More Than Half of U.S. Population in 4.6 Percent of Counties, Fact check: Clarifying the comparison between popular vote and counties won in the 2020 election, Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election, Americas bellwethers crumbled in aligning with Trump in 20. "Biden did well in virtually all of the most populous counties in the U.S., which, along with a larger electorate explains why he defeated Donald Trump by over 7 million votes, despite carrying many fewer counties," Smith wrote. If Trump can't win back or cut into margins in places like Prince William, Fairfax and Loudon, he likely can't win the state. Now, Democrats have to drive up the margin in this populous, central North Carolina county. Winnebago County: A large bellwether county in east-central Wisconsin, Mr. Trump won it in 2016, but in 2018 Democrats running for governor and the Senate performed much better. BBC Reality Check breaks down the bill for the world's most expensive election, Arriving at a voting station to observe as a poll challenger on 4 November last, she sat down next to two people she didn't know. He would have to really drive up big margins in the less populous counties in the mountainous Western part of the state, as well as Chesterfield (south of Richmond) and Virginia Beach. To do so, the popular vote winner of each county for every presidential election from 1980 through 2016 was tabulated and mapped, yielding 19 true bellwether counties for the period. Has No Presidential Candidate Won Iowa, Florida and Ohio and Still Lost? Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. Some bored statistician or media hack needed something to do one day and decided to see which counties in the country consistently voted for the winning candidate. Other counties to watch: Counties where Clinton has to drive up the score include Bexar (San Antonio), Hidalgo (McAllen) and Travis (Austin). There are more than 3,000 counties in the United States, but in presidential elections they are not all created equal. But when word got out, Trump supporters crashed it. Situated on the southern shore of Lake Erie in Ohio, Ottawa County is one of America's most accurate bellwether counties - a region where voters correctly pick the president, election after election for decades at a time. A switch county is our name for a county that happens to vote for the winning party whenever there is a change of parties, ignoring how they voted for the incumbent. Fifth, it listswhether each candidate's politicalparty won seats in the House of Representatives which occurred withObama andTrump, but not Biden. That includes 10 elections, including Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. The question is, how much did they get it wrong by? Just how big is it? The website will remain online for the foreseeable future, but may not get any significant updates until the situation changes. It is the only county to go twice for Bush and twice for Obama. The website FiveThirtyEight pointed out in 2021 that, in the 2016 election Trump won, opponent Hillary Clinton carried 16 of the 35 counties that had gone for the winner in every election from. running an event, collecting and distributing information, Canvassing: Alarming Results in Multiple States, Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, The Curious Case of the 2020 Voting Rate Blowouts, How to Predict Election Results Using Registration Data, The Counties Where Votes and Party Registrations Don't Align, Investigating the Large Democrat Vote Increases, USEIPs Election Fraud Data Analytics Guide, 2000 Mules: Video Evidence of Ballot Trafficking, Voting Machines Lacking EAC Accreditation, List of Legislators Supporting Election Audits, Forensic Analysis of Mesa County Machine Images, A Vote Trafficking Parable, by David K. Clements, Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, View the County & Local Organizing Playbook, Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel, Bellwether counties are not just statistical curiosities, The odds of 21 (out of 22) of these counties getting it wrong is, We have identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. Watch Hampton City. November 8, 2016 9:29 AM ET. You can subscribe to our print edition, ad-free app or electronic newspaper replica here. And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. But after twice voting for George W. Bush, it has since moved well to the left. Wilkes-Barres Luzerne County is traditionally Democratic territory in northeastern Pennsylvania but its also an aging, working-class county where Trumps message is resonating. But in 2020, 18 of these 19 bellwether counties voted for former President Donald Trump. By Dasha Burns, Antonia Hylton, Shaquille Brewster and Benjy Sarlin. We know these counties are the best of the best at predicting the election winner. It clearly shows they hold no allegiances and will vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them at each election. In 2008, Obama received69,498,516 votes, per the Federal Election Commission. In Westmoreland County, Virginia - a small, rural community south of Washington DC that's failed to be a bellwether only twice since 1928, and is home to twice the number of African Americans than the national average - he beat Mr Biden by 16 points. "When I came here in 1989, you couldn't be elected dog catcher if you weren't a Democrat," he says. Like Texas, Utah looks like it's receded from the battleground, so we don't include it in our 13 battlegrounds. Valencia County is home to a string of towns along the banks of the Rio Grande river in an otherwise largely arid stretch of desert south of Albuquerque. 7. Clinton has to drive up the score in Philadelphia with its significant share of black voters. After Detroits Wayne County, Oakland County is the most-populous in the state. ", "Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election", "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_election_bellwether_counties_in_the_United_States&oldid=1125445752, This page was last edited on 4 December 2022, at 01:36. Obama won Monroe County 49.6-49.1 in 2012 and 52-47 in 2008. As long as a candidate wins enough electoral votes from other states, there is noreason it's impossible to win an election while losing Florida, Ohio, or Iowa. Those places will get the bulk of the presidential candidates time and their surrounding media markets will get the bulk of the television ad spending. It has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 2000. These counties arent the only ones that matter most swing states have a handful of critical counties, not just one or two but these 25 stand out, either for their voting history, population size or traditional impact on swing-state election results. In fact, according to David Wasserman of The Cook Political Report, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, compared to 1,096 counties that fit that description in 1992. In their . In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. Trump gave them hope. View our How You Can Help page, or contribute via It's the wrong question. Most bellwether counties were slightly Democratic-leaning in 2008 and Republican leaning in 2012. If Clinton is getting in the mid-to-high 30s there, rather than the high 20s, she might have a shot at improving her statewide total enough to beat Trump and McMullin. So, even though they got it wrong in 2020, it is still worth figuring out how much they got it wrong by. White voters without a college degree used to vote more like the country as a whole, which helps explain why these counties maintained their bellwether status for a long time. The county narrowly voted for Bush in 2000 but has gone Democratic in the three presidential elections since then, though never by more than 52 percent. In the end, only Clallam County retained its streak this year. Ottawa County wasn't the only swing county to get the outcome wrong this time around. This favors the Democrat party since we are excluding counties that voted Republican in 1988. 8. Hillary Clinton (578) A few counties in America are known as the "bellwether counties": Those locations that always end up voting for the candidate who ultimately wins in the presidential election. President-elect Joe Biden officially secured the presidency after the Electoral College met to give him and Vice President-elect Harris 306 votes. Not a bad streak. Watch this populous county, home to Manchester. Follow the Data Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis . Latest voter registration totals: Unaffiliated: 49,026Democrats: 40,563Republicans: 35,146. TIP: The Biden campaign has run ads in the Toledo broadcast market, which conveniently covers part of Michigan, too. The American Voter's Alliance provides a great national overview with many reports, videos and detailed legal submissions. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. The probability is hard to comprehend, so lets figure it out for real. Ohio (18 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-47% - 2008: Obama 53%-46%. "It wasn't part of his strategy.". Increased political polarization is another reason why fewer counties are consistently indicative of presidential results in recent years. Obama won both with 56 percent; if Trump is making them competitive, that could mean Iowa goes his way. Almost a quarter of Obama's votes in 2012 came out of Wayne County (Detroit), which is 41 percent black. Yes, another Hillsborough! Suburban Richmonds Henrico County was once a reliable GOP stronghold it went twice for George W. Bush and backed Bob McDonnell in his 2009 gubernatorial win. Below are 10 bellwether counties that could give signs as to how the electorate feels this cycle and in future races. "That didn't happen after 2016," she adds. Ultimately, they are simply 19 counties and this time, 18 of them voted for the candidate who lost the election. Along with neighboring Pinellas County (St. Petersburg), the two counties include nearly a half-million registered Republicans. On Dec. 14, President-elect Joe Biden secured his victory after he received306 votes from the Electoral College, per USA TODAY. Green Bays Brown County voted for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, then Barack Obama in 2008, then flipped to Mitt Romney in 2012. If it is not demographically representative counties or politically competitive counties which are the bellwethers, why then do we find bellwethers? who in 2016 won Caswell and other rural counties in North Carolina by tapping those feelings of abandonment. The Milwaukee suburb went for Obama by just 3 points in 2012, but went for George W. Bush in 2004 when Wisconsin was the closest state of that election, though it went for Democrat John Kerry. Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.. Other counties to watch: Pima (where Tucson is). That is 19 counties still standing after 10 elections! Home to Tipton (population 3,199), Cedar has gone with the winner of every presidential and Senate race since 1992. A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. But its population has steadily diversified, including a surge in Asian and Latino voters, which has made it more competitive Obama carried it twice. It went in a big way for Trump in the primary, but Obama won it, and the margin was similar to his statewide spread. The best bellwether counties will consistently vote more than 50% for the winning party. (The highest value being 66.1%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 25 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. ET. It is important to realise these counties have no allegiances whatsoever and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them based on merit. Click on the relevant state then look for the county name.). History suggests not: just two-thirds of historic bellwether counties. Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. Allegheny (Pittsburgh) is also key for Democrats. Read about our approach to external linking. First, what are bellwether counties? In other words, it's not whether Clinton wins Hillsborough that's important, but by how much. Pittsburghs Allegheny County, the second-most populous county in the state after Philadelphia, is heavily Democratic. Florida (29 electoral votes) - Toss-up. GOP Chairman Dale Fellows noted that the population has been steadily aging in recent years. [Even Though Biden Won, Republicans Enjoyed The Largest Electoral College Edge In 70 Years. "The 2020 election was RIGGED.". (The highest value being again 66.1%). Trumps local ties notwithstanding, Clinton is likely to run up her numbers here in the northernmost part of the South Florida region.
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