(Handout photo from the U.S. navy) Admiral James Stavridis was 16th Supreme Allied Commander of NATO and 12th Dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. "In their use of armed force, the American operational paradigm is largely unconcerned by its own casualty rates, so long as they are lower than those of their adversary. The context for decision making would be vitally important weighing the potential costs to the country, domestically and internationally, against the value of that cost for maintaining the ANZUS relationship. Anyone can read what you share. China is aware of this gap. Here are some tips. One option to attack the man-made islands would be to send in teams of US Marine Raider commandos to destroy weapons systems. "The question requires urgent, high-profile debate in parliament and among the wider public. It can deny the United States control of the air within 300 nautical miles (556km) from China's coast. This is what a statesman should do as a risk averse response. Australia is especially exposed. "China would not seek to deploy land forces to the US (nor Australia for that matter). The war has exposed divisions within the G20 that go beyond Russia and China. Fishing boats could push into ancestral territory, backed up by armed coast guard vessels. In providing for our own defence we ought to be able to make sufficient and good quality plans provided we have the will to do so. To use the words of one leading military analyst, Australia could find itself "sleepwalking" into a war with China. He believes Australia has a "fundamental strategic pathology to support the interests of the US at the expense of our own.". At home, a concerted effort must be made to find ways to better protect U.S. traditional and social media against Chinese disinformation. "The mobilisation for all this would take many months and US intelligence would detect it and know in advance what was being planned. I do not think there is any credible chance that America, with or without Australia's support, could win a war with China over Taiwan. "This decision over the possibility of war with China could be made more difficult because of ANZUS. Satellite image of Chinese vessels in the Whitsun Reef in a disputed zone, March 23, 2021. Credit:Maxar Technologies via AP. "Depending on the scenario, here's what is reasonably predictable: "Firepower strike can vary from a limited strike against symbolic targets to extensive strikes against energy and transport infrastructure (power stations and petroleum, oil, and lubricant (POL) storage sites, highways, railways, bridges, tunnels) as well as military targets (air defence systems, coastal defence cruise missile launchers, fighter aircraft, artillery). Would any divergence of perspectives be thrashed out before going to war? AEST = Australian Eastern Standard Time which is 10 hours ahead of GMT (Greenwich Mean Time), abc.net.au/news/china-us-war-what-would-conflict-look-like-taiwan/101998772, Help keep family & friends informed by sharing this article. Taiwan is much closer to China than the United States. But will it be safer for women? The United States cannot win a war against China over Taiwan, four Australian defense experts have said in a series of interviews conducted by the . "Australia should use all the means at its disposal to avert a war with China. Some strategists even use an east-facing map with China at the bottom to show China as being encircled and needing to break out.. "A big unknown is whether Japan would grant expanded rights to the US to use bases located on its territory, without itself joining the combat directly unless its territory is attacked. A Chinese close-in weapons system (CIWS) designed to shoot down incoming missiles during recent war games. The high-altitude balloon that drifted across the United States this month was seen by many Americans as a shocking Chinese breach of U.S. sovereignty. But China is a different kind of foe a military, economic and technological power capable of making a war felt in the American homeland. It also allows the US to try to promote the notion it is not"an American war". "Unlike the experience of the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan that affected only the members deployed into conflict, and their families, a war with China will have an impact on all Australians economically, financially, and personally. Chinas new Type-055 destroyers can carry 112 large missiles. Despite decades of warnings, our fuel refineries continue to close. Former defence minister, Christopher Pyne, told an audience in Adelaide that Taiwan was the most likely next flashpoint in the region. There are still hundreds of diplomats and politicians around the world including in Canberra working openly and behind the scenes to ensuretensions between China and the US never escalate into war. Maybe, that explained why President Bush and Prime Minister Howard, from the right of politics, and Mr Blair from the left of politics, shared the view about the need for the invasion.". A former US Army lieutenant colonel has warned of a possible "nuclear exchange" if the US breaks out into war with China. Beyond 10 years, who knows? Taiwans Foreign Minister Joseph Wu said on June 3 that Taipei did not anticipate a conflict was going to break out any time soon, but we are trying to get ourselves ready. Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. If not, what steps have been taken to change our posture? The decision to go to war would not require a public discussion. A new 'veloway' is welcome news for Melbourne's cyclists. Today, Chinas military spending is the second-highest in the world after the United States and continues to rise. Were sorry, this feature is currently unavailable. This service may include material from Agence France-Presse (AFP), APTN, Reuters, AAP, CNN and the BBC World Service which is copyright and cannot be reproduced. It may be possible for the US to operate from bases in northern Australia, though whether overflight rights would be granted by Indonesia is unlikely. And a mountain range makes it hard to reinforce via its eastern shores. If a conflict were to erupt in east Asia, then the Chinese military is closer to on par with the United States. "In its causation, [war with China] would be no different from any of the wars Australia has participated in since World War II. ", Any US-China war would be primarily a maritime conflict, and it would be, as we have seen, on a scale unprecedented since the Second World War. Professor Clinton Fernandes is a former intelligence officer with the Australian Army Intelligence Corps and now Professor of International and Political Studies at the University of New South Wales. In such a scenario, any Australian task force centred on its largely undefended troop transports and limited warship escorts would be under extreme risk. "The Kadena air base is 450 nautical miles away from Taiwan and threatened by Chinese surface-to-surface missiles. "The bases in South Korea and Japan may not be available, and Guam may also be unavailable. of Strategic Forum in Canberra, Australia. Performers dressed as the military celebrated Chinas military might on Monday nights gala in Beijing to celebrate the Chinese Communist Partys centenary. It would be relatively easy for China to establish a credible air and sea exclusion zone around Taiwan, and thereby put immense pressure on the Taiwanese to accept Beijings terms. "For China, the worst-case scenario is to have to conduct high-intensity operations against Taiwan, the United States, Japan and other US allies and partners simultaneously.. The US could also use submarines and stealth aircraft to attack Chinas shipping fleet in the Indian Ocean to cripple its economic lifelines in times of a crisis. US vs. China: Who Would Win a War in 2030? "The joint facility at Pine Gap would be a very important, indeed crucial, element in US intelligence gathering and in Command and Control. Our biggest customer is now also viewed as our biggest threat andChina's muscle-flexing around Taiwan last week only strengthened the view that a war involving Taiwan is a genuine possibility. U.S. supplies of many products could soon run low, paralyzing a vast range of businesses. It depends how it starts China and the United States are the great rivals in the competition to win the 21st century. Were working to restore it. He has served in a number of Australian government agencies and been a senior adviser to several Australian defense ministers. But is Taiwans fate any of our business, as Beijing insists it isnt? The world in 2025: China loses power, Russia 'won't exist' THE world's superpowers will be thrown into chaos and the war on IS will end. The US could no longer win a war against China China's navy has just completed a mission that has left US officials terrified - and it has serious implications for Australia's security. China might compound this with electronic and probably some physical attacks on satellites or related infrastructure. "Practically this limits the sinews of war available to us: they would be insufficient. If other countries come to our aid, that will be highly appreciated, but we will fight the war for our own survival and for our own future.. Wherever they start, they finish only when one side decides to give up. From Taiwan, the PLA could also pivot south, effectively enveloping the Philippines and giving Beijing easier access to the resource-rich Benham Rise, Dr Davis writes. This means any idea of sustained operations within the Pacific-spanning reach of Chinas ballistic and cruise missiles is likely optimistic. Such possibilities seem remote at present. And doesnt have the necessary reach. Principles matter, he writes. If war were to break out, China can be expected to use this to disrupt communications and spread fake news and other disinformation. All four analysts have held the highest security clearances that its possible to have. It has been growing by 6-8 per cent each year for the past five years but according to defence intelligence agency Janes, US spending remains miles ahead at $759 billion. Surrounded: Disturbing report from Ukraine. Answer (1 of 34): I must assume Brian Greenhow is joking, but if he is not I must point out that wars aren't won by population numbers or imaginary 'allies', but by real Alliances, either historical or by treaty, and by technology, military hardware, political maneuvers, industry and money, lots . China-US superpower showdown: military strength Credit:Matthew Absalom-Wong. Scenarios in which it would be right thing to do are few. 3-min read. Major combat against the US means two nuclear-armed states fighting each other. For China, the worst-case scenario is to have to conduct simultaneous high-intensity operations against Taiwan, the United States, Japan, and other US allies and partners. It now overlaps the ancestral territory of Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines, Borneo and India. the outcome for the U.S. was not a good one, a new report revealed this week. He says Australia has a "fundamental strategic pathology:to support the interests of the US at the expense of our own". And I cannot see America being willing to risk Chinese nuclear retaliation against the US homeland for Taiwan's sake. The Pentagon's new report on the Chinese military suggests the effectiveness of the People's Liberation Army is less about numbers of missiles than in how they intellectually and organisationally prepare for war. "Australia has always had a fascination about China, going well back in our history to pre-federation days. US soldiers, some seen here at a military exercise in Morocco earlier in June, have been deployed to battles across the world for the past 50 years. And the West may not be able to do much about it. We seem incapable of arresting trends towards existential climate change threats. "Chinas air defences are likely to prove formidable, but so are US and allied air capabilities. I am sure that survivors of war may have a more considered view. All times AEDT (GMT +11). "There would thus bea high chance that involvement in a war with China would swiftly exceed the toll in casualties suffered in Vietnam and Korea.". Credit:Getty. Beijings response was prompt and predictable. "Firepower strikes described above would be accompanied by cyber operations to ensure information is blocked as well. Thinking of scale I am reminded that In 1944 the US alone out-produced the rest of the world combined in all war stores before the wars ended in 1945. Provision of military hardware to Kyiv has depleted American stocks of some key military systems. "If they think the blockade is failing they may declare victory by pointing to the damage already inflicted, or they might escalate to attacking US forces that are supporting Taiwan. A new 'veloway' is welcome news for Melbourne's cyclists. China has built the world's largest navy and has become increasingly assertive over contested areas such as the South China Sea. Such concerns must be overcome before any aid can be offered to our allies. The US will pursue the following war aims: 1. A War With China Would Be Unlike Anything Americans Faced Before, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/27/opinion/a-war-with-china-would-reach-deep-into-american-society.html, more than 1,350 ballistic and cruise missiles, worlds largest navy and Asias biggest air force, the East is rising while the West is declining. How this young Indigenous artist is taking inspiration from anime and manga to celebrate his own culture, NBA star Ja Morant suspended, 'takes full responsibility' for nightclub gun video, Andrew Tate shuts down cancer rumors, is accused of recruiting politicians to his cause, 'If carers are going to survive, they need this', says resident pioneering dementia respite care centre. "It would suffer high attrition and its military modernisation and even its one-party Communist rule would be threatened. "As I see the decision for the invasion of Iraq I think it was made by the Prime Minister. For China, the worst-case scenario is to have to conduct high-intensity operations against Taiwan, the United States, Japan and other US allies and partners simultaneously.". "China can impose huge costs on the US and perhaps indefinitely deny air control to the US in that zone. "Yet, as both [Opposition leader] Dutton and [Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Defence] Richard Marles have indicated in their various pronouncements on the matter, our default position is "all the way with the USA" wherever and whenever. These threats from nature pose potentially disastrous outcomes that look inevitable; we have yet to find the statesmen to deal effectively with them. If we lost a single frigate, that's around 170 lives in an afternoon. According to the late Sir James Plimsoll [in conversation with me], Mao Zedong said to Prime Minister Nehru when the two met in 1954 that, in a war with any adversary China could afford to dedicate 100 million dead. "The scenario of a Chinese attack on Taiwan is often considered the catalyst but even in this case the reasons for, and management of, the breakdown in China-Taiwan relations in the lead up would be critical. Meia Nouwens from the International Institute for Strategic Studies said Beijing was intent on achieving primacy in the waters that surround China. Far fewer know their real story. The United States has vital strategic interests at stake. Maybe, the record would show otherwise in time? China is largely trying to take territorial control, which makes east Asia a likely location for trouble. Beijings tactic of area denial already appears to have been effective. "Relatively, we are a small country today and becoming even smaller in comparison to the company we keep. But the definition of ancestral territory appears to be changing rapidly. "They have publicly been very clear about not only . US-China war over Taiwan would be biggest since WWII, Australian expert says. The area around it would be highly contested and US war reserve stocks in the Pacific are earmarked for US forces that will assist Taiwan not for Taiwan itself. "Were the US and China to go to war over the next five to 10 years, the best scenario one might envisage for the US is a stalemate. In July 2020, BeiDou, Chinas version of GPS became fully operational, allowing it to track ships, planes, cars and smartphones from space without relying on the US technology that has dominated global positioning for decades. I think the US now accepts it may lose a conflict at least at the conventional level with China.. Taiwan is slightly bigger than the state of Maryland; if you recall how quickly Afghanistan and Kabul fell to the Taliban in 2021, you start to realize that the takeover of Taiwan could happen relatively quickly. "That is why I think it would be a mistake for America, or Australia, to go to war with China over Taiwan.". But where does that leave Australia and what does it mean to be a US ally. The Bashi Channel connects the South China Sea with the Pacific Ocean. "The forces are relatively evenly matched, because USadvantages in technology are balanced by China's advantages in geography fighting close to home. Australia's oldest running coal-fired power station is about to close. by Robert Farley L Here's What You Need to. Dr. Babbage is the author of the forthcoming book The Next Major War: Can the U.S. and Its Allies Win Against China?. The aim would be to foster confusion, division and distrust and hinder decision making. I told President Xi that we will maintain a strong military presence in the Indo-Pacific just as we do with NATO in Europe not to start conflict, but to prevent conflict, US President Joe Biden told a joint session of Congress in April. "The fundamental assumption that we could win a war against China is wrong-headed and hawkish; it is also very risky. In this scenario, the US and its allies could respond by conducting airlifts to Taiwan. And that is where any fight to resolve Taiwan's fate will be resolved. And Beijing has the advantage of geography. In the event of a war: what would Japan, the Philippines, South Korea and Australia do? Rockets figure heavily in Beijings arsenal. China believes the island is part of its territory and has vowed to take it back with force if necessary. Americas military power is very great, but Chinas military power, and especially its capacity to deny its air and sea approaches to US forces, has grown sharply, and is now formidable, Professor White warned. Our economy would be paralysed as all trade with China and other major East Asian partners would stop dead and may not resume for a long time. Protests break out in Iran as more schoolgirls hospitalised after suspected poisoning. Yet if China wanted to conquer Taiwan, the outcome could be different. Its military planners already expect these to be overwhelmed by missiles in the opening hours of any conflict. Australians could wake up one morning to the news that we are at war with China. China has demonstrated its capabilities already, including in Taiwan, where it has waged disinformation campaigns, and in serious hacking incidents in the United States. Korea was an unnecessary war, as were the conflicts in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. I am 68 and I am certain we will be at war with China within my lifetime. It is very plausible to say there is no guarantee of victory in the first phases, Lyle Goldstein, a research professor at the Naval War Colleges China Maritime Studies Institute, told Newsweek. everything from electronics to furniture to shoes. Tensions continue to simmer . "It would also have to be true that if any of the commentators were taken seriously the impact of this reality of preparing for war with China would now be affecting us all. Stavros Atlamazoglou. China is closing the gap, but will they be able to defeat America by the beginning of the next decade. Beijing has already put its assets in place. I am convinced that the challenges facing the United States are serious, and its citizens need to become better aware of them. If China chooses to attack the island of Taiwan, the United States could be helpless to stop it. A war would halt this trade (as well as American and allied shipments to China). An embarrassed politician may suddenly feel compelled to enforce a vague red line. If there is going to be a war between Taiwan and China, we will fight the war ourselves, he said. Confronting as that would be, perhaps more confronting is something many people do not realise: such a decision would not require any consultation in parliament. The PLAs missile forces are central to Chinas efforts to deter and counter third-party intervention in a regional conflict, a US congressional report concluded this month. The People's Liberation Army is capable of "substantially subduing" the US Navy in the waters around China, a Communist Party-owned newspaper boasts. And the protagonists are testing each others resolve on an almost daily basis. Despite its 1.9 million-strong army, compared to Taiwans cohort of 150,000, the task of taking its island neighbour and holding it is a mammoth military challenge. Its a problem long recognised by defence analysts and planners. If that's what they mean, their view should be rejected in favour of Australian sovereignty and parliamentary authorisation.". Far fewer know their real story. At the last G20 foreign ministers' meeting, in Bali last summer, Lavrov walked out amid condemnations of Russia's war and its impact on global food and energy costs. Allan Behm, now head of the international and security program at The Australia Institute, says were the US and China to go to war over the next five to 10 years the best potential outcome for the US is a stalemate. All agree, for example, that the United States with or without Australias assistance cannot win a war against China. Now it is China. Some wouldn't survive. The capital of China is Beijing. I did not see anything like the same discontent in Australia. I think its clear that Australia would be better off staying out of it. With that in mind, I sought the views of four of Australia's most experienced military strategists, with 100 years of high-level military and strategic experience between them,to discuss what joining the US in a war with China could mean for Australians. And each one would require a heavy investment of equipment and lives to neutralise if they could be reached in the first place. The idea sounds grand charging forth, flags flying, to save a bullied island friend. Hopefully Australian statesmen would have played a significant role in the lead up to a breakdown in cross straits relations.". "Taiwan doesn't have a Plan B that's the big problem. We should not assume it will attempt this.". If the US went to war with China, who would win? "Washington would expect Australia to contribute the full range of our air and naval forces to the maximum extent of our capability, including surface warships, submarines, F-18 and F-35 fighters, P-8 maritime patrol aircraft, airborne early warning aircraft and tanker aircraft.. On the military front, the United States should accelerate programs already underway to strengthen and disperse American forces in the Western Pacific to make them less vulnerable to attacks by China. Admiral Chris Barrie says that with all the "overblown rhetoric" about the possibility of war against China he thinks there is a danger of forgetting that war should only ever be taken as the last means of resolving insurmountable differences between nation states. What would war with China look like for Australia? Earlier this month, the United States Air Force staged a demonstration involving four heavily armed F-16 fighters. "It is not clear how formidable Taiwan'sdefences would prove to be in the face of a Chinese invasion. One real threat mistaken for a bluff. "Unlike the Taliban, China has an air force. The Chinese government last week released a 12-point plan it devised to bring about an end to . Those are easy targets. This article was originally published by Radio Free Asia and is reprinted with permission. The consequences for us would be very serious in terms of the Australian economy, the impact on the Australian people and the ravages to our way of life throughout the land. Would parallel circumstances that led to the invasion of Iraq be "acceptable" in this case? Guam is 1,300 nautical miles and Honolulu (Pearl Harbor) is over 4,200 nautical miles from Taiwan. "On one hand, if China attacked the US homeland, similar to the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour, the US would respond with war. It runs between the Japanese islands of Mikako and Okinawa. The Miyako Strait connects the East China Sea with the Pacific Ocean. Protests break out in Iran as more schoolgirls hospitalised after suspected poisoning. "Given the size of the Australia's forces and the logistic constraints on the US forces, a war against China would be a very hard war to fight. A blockade may be preceded by firepower strikes. Do they think an all-volunteer defence force can do the job? Hugh White, an emeritus professor of strategic studies at the Australian National University, has warned about the serious consequences that could arise from not adequately addressing tensions. But there's also bad news ahead. And that makes the kind of island-hopping campaign used by the US to take back the Pacific from Japan in World War II no longer feasible. Blood, sweat and tears. And that is where any fight to resolve Taiwans fate will be resolved. Space would be the first place both sides would go to strike the others forces in event of a conflict, says Tate Nurkin of the US-based Intelligence Group. Put bluntly, the repercussions of Australia joining the US in any war with China over the status of Taiwan or any other issue may have catastrophic consequences. And Taiwan sitting neatly between the two offers that opportunity. The most immediate fight, however, appears to be centred on Taiwan. March 11, 2021 Ryan Morgan Last fall, the U.S. Air Force played out a war scenario with China, in which China begins its attack by deploying a biological weapon throughout the Indo-Pacific region. Over the past decade, China has increasingly viewed the United States as mired in political and social crises. One accident. "No one can be sure how that war would play out, because there have been no major maritime wars since Japan was defeated in 1945, but by far the most likely outcome would be a costly stalemate in which both sides lost heavily but neither side could secure a decisive, war-wining advantage. Ukrainian, Romanian, and US Army Special . The last time Chinese troops saw direct action was 1979 when China launched a costly month-long war against Vietnam to teach it a lesson in retaliation for Hanois actions in south-east Asia. Taiwan cannot be resupplied by land. It can impose costs on our forces. These waterways could be used to bottle up Chinese forces. It may turn out to be childs play compared with the havoc China could wreak on the American homeland in a war. It has additional radars and air defence weapons on outposts in the South China Sea, which extend its IADS zone out even further, although these latter systems can be destroyed by the US. The US has launched 615 satellites into space in the last three years, compared to 168 by China, according to Lowy. Dr Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst with ASPI's Defence, Strategy and National Security Program, told Daily Mail Australia it is increasingly likely President Xi Jinping will order Chinese forces. But which one would have military superiority in outright conflict? He says given the rate at which Chinese forces are modernising and building both capability and capacity, "a Chinese victory over the US is the more likely outcome beyond 2035". "Given the rate at which the Chinese forces are modernising and building both capability and capacity, a Chinese victory over the US is the more likely outcome beyond 2035. "Now, as we approach reaching 10 billion people on earth, we see more difficult problems arising from this population burden.
